In our era, wars between insurgents and regular armies tend to end in one of two ways. The one we are most familiar with is the way the Vietnam War ended in 1975, with a Russian-made tank crashing the gate of the presidential palace in Saigon. In other words, they end with an unmistakable event. The last chopper out of Saigon...Castro entering Havana…the Khmer Rouge taking Phnom Penh.
     In the wars that the insurgents lose, the ending is much like the beginning. Such wars begin with scattered acts of violence or terrorism and gradually escalate on both sides. When the insurgents lose the violence gradually ebbs. Perhaps it never ends completely, but life goes back to something approximating normal.
     This may be what’s happening in Iraq. Quietly, under the radar of the mass media, our side may have won the war.
     Al Qaeda in Iraq, two years ago, numbered somewhere around 12,000 fighters, mostly foreign with some indigenous Sunni Iraqis. Their last urban stronghold, Mosul, fell to the Iraqi army two weeks ago, and it is estimated there are only about 1,200 AQI fighters left.
    The Sunni insurgency, which four years ago occupied and re-occupied Fallujah and other centers in Al Anbar province, is virtually extinguished. AQI attempted to impose a Taliban-style rule of terror on the province and the Sunnis bridled. The clan chiefs who are the real local government in Al Anbar allowed the Americans to buy them off and now the Sunni chiefs are our good allies who give us excellent information on enemy movements and activity.
    With two thirds of the threat removed, Coalition and Iraq forces are now concentrating on keeping the Shite militias, especially the Sadrists, off balance. The militia leaders are in exile in Iran, including Muqtada al-Sadr. Sadr City, the Baghdad suburb that was a stronghold of enemy militias, is now occupied by Iraqi troops.
     The entire city of Baghdad is much quieter than two years ago as General David Petraeus’ strategy of setting up neighborhood strongpoints manned by U.S. and Iraq soldiers has paid off with a much quieter city. The people are coming to Coalition and Iraqi soldiers with tips and information that keeps the enemy on the defensive.
     As for the sectarian “civil war” between the Sunni and Shites, the numbers killed in that conflict in May and June were zero.
     Fifteen of the eighteen political and social benchmarks set by the President and Congress as our war goals have been met. Every day Iraq police and military forces become stronger, better trained, more confident and more trusted by the people. Now Iraq and the United States are tentatively exploring the subject of U.S. withdrawal and the return of full sovereignty to the Iraq Government. That government may yet turn out to be the only truly democratic government in the Arab world, a buffer between the rest of the Middle East and expansionist Iran.
   No one is going to say the war is over because, like all insurgencies, acts of violence big and small will continue to take place for years to come. But the intensity and frequency of the violence has tapered off and will continue to decline. The war might not be over, but we’ve already won it.
    All of which may make anything that John McCain or Barack Obama might have to say about it moot. That’s probably a good thing.

     The General Speaks…What if it isn’t a moot point? General Petraeus was asked the other day about Obama’s 16-month withdrawal plan. Diplomatically and devastatingly he said, “It depends on the conditions; depends on the mission set.  It depends on the enemy.  The enemy does get a vote and is sometimes an independent variable.”  No kidding. Even the best laid peace plans of mice and men oft go astray.

     A Footnote to History… I believe it was last week that a cargo of uranium yellow cake was received in Canada for disposal (Edmonton Sun,  July 6, 2008). It was reportedly left over from Saddam Hussein’s nuclear weapons program. Whether we were right or wrong to invade Iraq is going to be debated long after you and I are gone, but in ousting Saddam Hussein we just might have done the right thing.