The Victory Lap Ends… Barack Obama came home this week after his “World Tour” in which he celebrated his impending election as President of the United States of America.
     This was so momentous and historic an event that the three network news anchors accompanied him on the voyage …only to find that his “availabilities” to the press were going to be rather limited.
     In making this trip Obama stood some traditional notions on their head. One is the notion of the “Middle East fact-finding trip.” Obama found the facts first and then took them East to educate the leaders there on what the situations are in Afghanistan, Iraq and Israel. It went down pretty well with al-Maliki in Iraq. He endorsed Obama’s 16-month troop withdrawal plan. Thanks to The Surge, which defeated the insurgency, shattered Al Qaeda in Iraq and crippled the Shiite militias, leaving Iraq in 16 months now looks kind of doable.
      That’s no excuse, however, for reporters to try to embarrass Obama by asking him if, had he known then what he knows now, he would have supported the Surge. Of course not, he answered, since his way –to start to withdraw two years ago—might have worked better!
      I do not make this stuff up. As Casey Stengel used to say, “You can look it up…”

     Berlin was always to be the highlight of the Victory Lap… Two of the past century’s most recognizable moments of presidential triumph took place in Berlin, at the Brandenburg Gate (which stood where communist East Berlin was walled off from West Berlin). It was where JFK declared “Ich bin ein Berliner,” (which translates into “I am a jelly doughnut,” a “Berliner” –but Kennedy’s noble heart was in the right place) and Ronald Reagan demanded, “Mr. Gorbachev: Tear down that wall!”
     Strong stuff. Strong presidential stuff. Obama wanted his moment at the Brandenburg Gate too.
     Slight difficulty, the Germans pointed out, JFK and Ronald Reagan were Presidents of the United States when they made their speeches. Kennedy and Reagan had both demonstrated, forcefully, that they would put the security of their own countries on the line in defense of freedom. The people of Berlin and of Germany understood this. This knowledge and background is what gives those precious moments in history their force and meaning. As tactfully as possible, the Germans indicated to Obama that he would have to be President, or have achieved something to stand in the spotlight hitherto reserved for Kennedy and Reagan.

    Obama did speak… but it was an odd affair all around. As one German official put it, you would never see a German candidate give an election campaign speech on the Mall in Washington, with the Capitol or the Lincoln Memorial as a background. So what wasa Obama doing in Berlin? When the question was put to a campaign aide, the aide retorted that it wasn’t a political speech; that when the President of the United States speaks overseas it is never a political speech… At which point a reporter mildly interjected that Obama isn’t the President…yet.
     Instead of the Brandenburg Gate, Obama got the Victory Column relocated onto a traffic circle by Hitler during his redesign of Berlin. About a half million people turned out to hear Obama, and each was served a nice bowl of oratorical oatmeal. Obama uttered platitudes against walls that divide different peoples (the Berlin Wall divided Germans..ahem!), joked that he was probably not the kind of American official they were used to seeing (unless they had seen Colin Powell or Condi Rice), boasted he was a citizen of the world, and led a chorus or two of “Michael Row the Boat Ashore” (okay, I made that last item up). Even to claim he was a jelly doughnut would have made a more lasting impression.
     Der Spiegel, Germany’s leading news publication summed it up: "Huge Crowds Left with Mixed Feelings." The visuals were nice though.

     Obama may have thrown a brief snit fit while in Germany... Just before he was to go to the U.S. Military hospital in Landsthul to visit some severely injured G.I.s he was reminded by the Department of Defense that his visit would have to conform to DoD regulations. The rules are that no campaigning is allowed using the wounded soldiers as props for a visual. To his credit, Obama had already dis-invited the press to accompany him. When told he could not bring any of his campaign staff. He cancelled out completely.
    In a press release the campaign explained that Obama “decided out of respect for these servicemen and women that it would be inappropriate to make a stop to visit troops at a U.S. military facility as part of a trip funded by the campaign.” McCain’s retort was that it is never inappropriate for a public official to visit wounded soldiers.
     If Obama had shown up alone to pay his respects to our wounded soldiers. I am sure it would have been as big a thrill for them as it would have been if he had brought his speechwriters, photographers and spin doctors.
     On the whole, however, I have to rate Obama’s trip a success. He looked presidential while McCain looked like a bag of sand –if you could see him at all.

Strategy 101…Barack Obama rates the invasion of Iraq as the “worst strategic blunder” ever made by the United States. When we withdraw from that country, he adds, we need to send our troops to where the real front line of the War on Terror is: Afghanistan (and maybe Pakistan).
     Where do we begin?
     The invasion of Iraq in 2003 was not in retaliation for the 9/11 attacks but because the U.S. Government believed that Saddam Hussein was building an atom bomb and had other weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). Bush’s CIA believed it. Clinton and his CIA believed it. Our NATO allies believed it (even if some didn’t support the invasion). And we knew for certain the Saddam had used poison gas, on his own people, and that he was a murderer and torturer capable of using WMDs if he had them. That’s why we invaded. But Saddam had either dismantled or hid any evidence of WMDs.
     That was bad enough, but inexcusably, the government, especially the departments of Defense and State, had no plans to restore peace and order in the country after the invasion. The way was opened first for lawlessness and then for outright insurrection.
     Five years have passed and we have finally defeated most of our foes in the country, including “Al Qaeda in Iraq.” But Obama still maintains that the war was a strategic blunder, says knowing what he knows now he would still vote against The Surge and that the real center of gravity of this conflict is in Afghanistan.
     Here is why he is wrong: Iraq sits between Iran and the rest of the Middle East, including Israel. Iran has made a satellite out of Syria and Lebanon, but with a free, democratic Iraq sitting between Iran and the Levant, the ability of the Iranians to dominate the region is severely hampered. With a free Iraq, Iranian hegemony in Syria and Lebanon might be broken. Iraq blocks overland aid and reinforcements from Iran going to Syria, Lebanon or to Palestinian terrorists.
     Iraq sits on great underground lakes of oil. Victory in Iraq means that their oil will not become a bargaining chop in an Iranian power play, but will be available to all who can afford to buy it. If Iraq becomes a U.S. ally, we could station troops and air power there to keep an eye on Iran without having to risk carrier task forces in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf.
     Finally, a free and democratic Iraq will prove to the Muslim world that democracy and its institutions are not incompatible with Islam.
    Afghanistan does have strategic value. It harbors Osama Bin Laden and the remnants of Al Qaeda. Eliminating them would cripple terrorist groups around the world. Defeating the resurgant Taliban will reduce the influence of the Islamist fascists in Pakistan. Obama is right to propose a surge—if you will—in U.S. troop strength in Afghanistan to achieve these goals.
     But when you look at the geographic position of Iraq, its oil and its potential for containing Iranian expansionism, there can be no doubt that Iraq has more strategic value to the United States. Our challenge now is to get the Iraqi government to let us stick around as we have stuck around in Japan and Germany: as a friendly presence insuring that country’s lasting security. 

Am I imagining this?…Or is Barack Obama just a teensy weensy bit full of himself, taking his victory lap around Europe three and a half months before the election? The Daily Show said Obama visited Bethlehem while in Israel just to have a look at the manger where he was born….

Does anyone here know how to play this game? …Wailed Casey Stengel when he managed the hapless 1961 New York Mets. Senator John McCain might be excused if he were to wail Stengel-like about his campaign team. It’s a fine thing when a guy with all the experience in the world, like McCain, looks like a duffer on the campaign trail while Obama, who not that far removed from his days as a neighborhood activist cuts a fine presidential picture.
    Sic semper Republicans…Thus be it ever with Republicans. They seem to have lost the knack for political campaigning. Campaign staffers have been providing McCain with plenty of gaffes for him to apologize for …while Obama strikes presidential poses at the Wailing Wall, Berlin and etc.
     McCain’s effort has the same lack of fire we saw in George H.W. Bush’s 1992 bid and Bob Dole’s 1996 attempt. What McCain needs is a James Carville-type organizer who gets everyone on message –the SAME message, it should be stressed for this lot—and who is not afraid to get tough with the opposition. We deserve to see a little more fight from McCain, if only to toughen up Obama for the job he is well on course for winning.

In our era, wars between insurgents and regular armies tend to end in one of two ways. The one we are most familiar with is the way the Vietnam War ended in 1975, with a Russian-made tank crashing the gate of the presidential palace in Saigon. In other words, they end with an unmistakable event. The last chopper out of Saigon...Castro entering Havana…the Khmer Rouge taking Phnom Penh.
     In the wars that the insurgents lose, the ending is much like the beginning. Such wars begin with scattered acts of violence or terrorism and gradually escalate on both sides. When the insurgents lose the violence gradually ebbs. Perhaps it never ends completely, but life goes back to something approximating normal.
     This may be what’s happening in Iraq. Quietly, under the radar of the mass media, our side may have won the war.
     Al Qaeda in Iraq, two years ago, numbered somewhere around 12,000 fighters, mostly foreign with some indigenous Sunni Iraqis. Their last urban stronghold, Mosul, fell to the Iraqi army two weeks ago, and it is estimated there are only about 1,200 AQI fighters left.
    The Sunni insurgency, which four years ago occupied and re-occupied Fallujah and other centers in Al Anbar province, is virtually extinguished. AQI attempted to impose a Taliban-style rule of terror on the province and the Sunnis bridled. The clan chiefs who are the real local government in Al Anbar allowed the Americans to buy them off and now the Sunni chiefs are our good allies who give us excellent information on enemy movements and activity.
    With two thirds of the threat removed, Coalition and Iraq forces are now concentrating on keeping the Shite militias, especially the Sadrists, off balance. The militia leaders are in exile in Iran, including Muqtada al-Sadr. Sadr City, the Baghdad suburb that was a stronghold of enemy militias, is now occupied by Iraqi troops.
     The entire city of Baghdad is much quieter than two years ago as General David Petraeus’ strategy of setting up neighborhood strongpoints manned by U.S. and Iraq soldiers has paid off with a much quieter city. The people are coming to Coalition and Iraqi soldiers with tips and information that keeps the enemy on the defensive.
     As for the sectarian “civil war” between the Sunni and Shites, the numbers killed in that conflict in May and June were zero.
     Fifteen of the eighteen political and social benchmarks set by the President and Congress as our war goals have been met. Every day Iraq police and military forces become stronger, better trained, more confident and more trusted by the people. Now Iraq and the United States are tentatively exploring the subject of U.S. withdrawal and the return of full sovereignty to the Iraq Government. That government may yet turn out to be the only truly democratic government in the Arab world, a buffer between the rest of the Middle East and expansionist Iran.
   No one is going to say the war is over because, like all insurgencies, acts of violence big and small will continue to take place for years to come. But the intensity and frequency of the violence has tapered off and will continue to decline. The war might not be over, but we’ve already won it.
    All of which may make anything that John McCain or Barack Obama might have to say about it moot. That’s probably a good thing.

     The General Speaks…What if it isn’t a moot point? General Petraeus was asked the other day about Obama’s 16-month withdrawal plan. Diplomatically and devastatingly he said, “It depends on the conditions; depends on the mission set.  It depends on the enemy.  The enemy does get a vote and is sometimes an independent variable.”  No kidding. Even the best laid peace plans of mice and men oft go astray.

     A Footnote to History… I believe it was last week that a cargo of uranium yellow cake was received in Canada for disposal (Edmonton Sun,  July 6, 2008). It was reportedly left over from Saddam Hussein’s nuclear weapons program. Whether we were right or wrong to invade Iraq is going to be debated long after you and I are gone, but in ousting Saddam Hussein we just might have done the right thing.